{"id":21250,"date":"2013-09-27T12:40:00","date_gmt":"2013-09-27T10:40:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.opc.cat\/la-ciencia-culpa-al-hombre-del-cambio-climatico-con-una-certeza-del-95-2\/"},"modified":"2013-09-27T12:40:00","modified_gmt":"2013-09-27T10:40:00","slug":"la-ciencia-culpa-al-hombre-del-cambio-climatico-con-una-certeza-del-95-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.opc.cat\/es\/la-ciencia-culpa-al-hombre-del-cambio-climatico-con-una-certeza-del-95-2\/","title":{"rendered":"La ciencia culpa al hombre del cambio clim\u00e1tico con una certeza del 95%"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\">\n<a href=\"http:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-1Xolq-l8QYc\/UkV8HE4b-xI\/AAAAAAAAAHs\/nlFNVJMjxi8\/s1600\/27-ciencia.jpg\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" border=\"0\" height=\"192\" src=\"https:\/\/www.opc.cat\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/27-ciencia.jpg\" width=\"320\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<p>El cambio clim\u00e1tico es real, est\u00e1 ocurriendo ahora de manera \u00abinequ\u00edvoca\u00bb y los seres humanos han causado la mayor parte del calentamiento global. Esas son las l\u00edneas maestras del nuevo informe cient\u00edfico del Panel Intergubernamental para el Cambio Clim\u00e1tico (IPCC, por sus siglas en ingl\u00e9s) de las Naciones Unidas, que se acaba de presentar en Estocolmo (Suecia). As\u00ed resumido, puede parecer que, despu\u00e9s de seis a\u00f1os de avances cient\u00edficos y de cuatro a\u00f1os de trabajo para la elaboraci\u00f3n de este documento, no aporta grandes novedades con respecto al informe de 2007. Sin embargo, se presentan datos nuevos importantes y, lo que m\u00e1s destacan los cient\u00edficos, sabemos m\u00e1s y con mayor certeza que hace seis a\u00f1os.<\/p>\n<p>El informe incrementa la probabilidad de que el cambio clim\u00e1tico sea fundamentalmente un problema de origen humano al 95%, con respecto al estudio anterior de 2007 que establec\u00eda una probabilidad del 90%. Adem\u00e1s, los cient\u00edficos de la ONU predicen un aumento de olas de calor, sequ\u00edas, inundaciones e incrementos del nivel del mar si no se toman medidas eficaces para reducir las emisiones de los gases contaminantes que provocan el efecto invernadero.<\/p>\n<p>En concreto, seg\u00fan los expertos del IPCC, el nivel del mar podr\u00eda subir entre 26 y 82 cent\u00edmetros a finales de siglo, una horquilla mayor que la apuntada en 2007, cuando se hablaba de una subida de entre 18 y 59 cent\u00edmetros.<\/p>\n<div>\n<br \/>\n<b>Incremento de temperatura<\/b><\/p>\n<p>El informe considera que una reducci\u00f3n r\u00e1pida de los gases de efecto invernadero ayudar\u00e1 al mundo a evitar lo peor del cambio clim\u00e1tico, pero sin unas estrategias de mitigaci\u00f3n agresivas, la temperatura global subir\u00e1 y probablemente superar\u00e1 los 2\u00baC de aumento en 2100. Las proyecciones se basan en escenarios posibles que tienen que ver con lo que reducir\u00e1n o no los distintos pa\u00edses. El escenario m\u00e1s optimista prev\u00e9 que la temperatura de la Tierra s\u00f3lo aumente 0,3\u00b0C y el m\u00e1s pesimista que suba hasta 4,8\u00b0, tomando como referencia las temperaturas medias desde 1986 y hasta 2005<\/p>\n<p>\u00abLo que hace este informe es revisar cu\u00e1nto m\u00e1s se sabe sobre el cambio clim\u00e1tico desde 2007. Ahora hay m\u00e1s evidencias y esas evidencias son m\u00e1s robustas, o el nivel de confianza que se les puede asignar en t\u00e9rminos de probabilidad es mayor\u00bb, asegura Fidel Gonz\u00e1lez Rouco, investigador del Instituto de Geociencias del CSIC y la Universidad Complutense de Madrid y uno de los tres cient\u00edficos espa\u00f1oles que han participado en el informe del Primer Grupo de Trabajo (los resultados de los grupos II y III se presentar\u00e1n en 2014).<\/p>\n<p>El informe destaca adem\u00e1s algunas conclusiones importantes que se extraen del an\u00e1lisis de casi 10.000 publicaciones cient\u00edficas producidas en los \u00faltimos seis a\u00f1os: el aumento del nivel del mar se ha acelerado, la tasa de deshielo del \u00c1rtico se ha duplicado, los glaciares y los casquetes polares se funden a una velocidad mayor y los oc\u00e9anos se est\u00e1n acidificando.<\/p>\n<p><b>Modelos clim\u00e1ticos por supercomputaci\u00f3n<\/b><\/p>\n<p>\u00abNuestra evaluaci\u00f3n se basa en millones de mediciones que permiten tener una visi\u00f3n imparcial sin precedentes del estado del sistema terrestre\u00bb, asegura Thomas Stocker, uno de los copresidentes del Grupo de Trabajo I. \u00abHay billones de bytes de datos num\u00e9ricos que forman la base cient\u00edfica necesaria para hacer las estimaciones de los posibles escenarios futuros de nuestro clima\u00bb, afirma Stocker.<\/p>\n<p>Una de las claves de este nuevo informe es que los modelos utilizados para hacer las proyecciones de escenarios futuros han cambiado, pertenecen a una generaci\u00f3n posterior, son m\u00e1s realistas, contemplan muchas m\u00e1s variables. Eso que implica que los c\u00e1lculos necesarios para obtener resultados son mucho m\u00e1s complejos y es preciso realizarlos con potentes superordenadores. \u00abEl esfuerzo computacional que se ha hecho para este informe ha sido mucho mayor que en 2007, porque los recursos computacionales disponibles han avanzado much\u00edsimo desde entonces\u00bb, explica Gonz\u00e1lez Rouco.<\/p>\n<p>\u00abLos modelos clim\u00e1ticos no dejan de ser representaciones de la realidad, del conocimiento que en la actualidad se tiene del sistema clim\u00e1tico. Como tales, son mejorables a medida que avanza el conocimiento\u00bb, dice Gonz\u00e1lez Rouco. Pero para evitar las interpretaciones oscuras y las teor\u00edas de la conspiraci\u00f3n que han acompa\u00f1ado a la ciencia del clima en a\u00f1os anteriores, todos los modelos utilizados en este quinto informe (AR5) se encuentran disponibles para ser utilizados libremente por la comunidad cient\u00edfica.<\/p><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: right;\">\n<i>Fuente:<a href=\"http:\/\/www.elmundo.es\/elmundo\/2013\/09\/26\/natura\/1380224332.html\" target=\"_blank\"> El Mundo<\/a><\/i><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>El cambio clim\u00e1tico es real, est\u00e1 ocurriendo ahora de manera \u00abinequ\u00edvoca\u00bb y los seres humanos han causado la mayor parte del calentamiento global. Esas son las l\u00edneas maestras del nuevo informe cient\u00edfico del Panel Intergubernamental para el Cambio Clim\u00e1tico (IPCC, por sus siglas en ingl\u00e9s) de las Naciones Unidas, que se acaba de presentar en [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":24557,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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